Seven months after Yahya Sinwar was elected as Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip, the ruthless hardliner has become increasingly more pragmatic as he struggles to cope with the dire humanitarian situation in the enclave.
Regarded by Israeli security officials as one of the most uncompromising leaders of Hamas who rejects any form of reconciliation with Israel, Sinwar’s ascendancy to power from the group’s armed wing escalated fears that Israel and terrorist organization may be heading towards yet another deadly conflict.
Freed in the 2011 prisoner swap with Israel after more than 20 years in jail, Sinwar is the key decision-maker for the group and is a member of the executive leadership that formulates policies, including those regarding Israel.
His election as the group’s leader in Gaza showed that Hamas’s military wing, the Izzadin Kassam Brigades, now holds more sway than the political leadership.
The Gaza Strip, which has been devastated following several conflicts with Israel, is facing an urgent humanitarian crisis, with a lack of fuel to supply residents with electricity or enough water and sanitation facilities when the power is off.
According to assessments, Israel acted wisely when it did not intervene in this past summer’s electricity crisis in Gaza, which led to Hamas taking the exceptional step of reaching into its own pocket and paid millions of shekels to Egypt for fuel.
In addition there is a skyrocketing employment rate, especially among youth, creating an even more desperate humanitarian situation. Those who are lucky enough to find work receive salaries which are just over $400 but nearly 80% of Gaza residents receive some form of aid.
Hamas has in the past provoked confrontation with Israel to detract from internal issues but one of Hamas’s primary fears is that the people of Gaza will one day rise up against it and which will lead to its fall from power and the return of the Palestinian Authority to the Strip.
According to assessments, Hamas under Sinwar has reduced the budget of its military wing from $200 million in 2014 to some $50 million in 2017.
Nevertheless, Iran, which froze its financial support to Hamas in the Gaza Strip after the group refused to support the Assad regime in 2012, is now reported to be providing the military wing of the group some $60-70 million. In August, Sinwar stated that ties have been restored and that the Islamic Republic is “the largest backer financially and militarily” to Hamas’s military wing.
Hamas has also changed its military doctrine under Sinwar, building more underground bunkers and tunnels in Gaza for defensive purposes rather than investing in attack tunnels which would cross into Israeli territory.
Hamas picks Yahya Sinwar as new Gaza leader (credit: REUTERS)
It is believed that Hamas has understood that no tunnel will be able to cross Israel’s new underground barrier, which has a system of advanced sensor and monitoring devices to detect tunnels and is combined with a 6 m. high above-ground fence similar to the one which runs along the Israeli-Egyptian border.
According to the IDF, the barrier, which will also be completed within two years and stretch into the Mediterranean to stave off Hamas infiltration by sea, will change the reality on the ground for both Israel and Hamas.
During the 2014 war, residents of Gaza border communities were left terrified after several soldiers were killed by Hamas militants when they popped out of the numerous tunnels dug into Israel by the terrorist organization.
Hamas continues to invest significant amounts of manpower and money into its tunnel system which has three different uses including command centers and weapons storage, offensive tunnels used for cross-border attacks into Israel and smuggling tunnels with Egypt.
The dire situation in the Gaza Strip has also pushed Hamas to reconcile its differences with Cairo.
According to Egyptian media reports, Hamas, which is the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood – a group banned in Egypt – is set to open an office in Cairo and appoint a permanent representative there to facilitate communication and coordination between the two sides, especially in relation to security and political issues.
While the assessment of the defense establishment is not interested in another round of conflict with Israel, a high number of Islamic State supporters in the Gaza Strip have crossed into the Sinai as well as several Hamas members who are looking for more action.
Israel has a 240 km. border with the Sinai and has been closely cooperating with Cairo in the restive peninsula in the fight against ISIS.
There are also fears that as the civil war in Syria draws to a close, many ISIS fighters might choose to go to the Sinai Peninsula and join the group’s affiliate there, who despite the small size, is considered by many to be one of the most effective Islamic State franchises carrying out numerous deadly attacks on Egyptian security forces.
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